In the end though, the eventual nominees were fairly standard, with the two least commercially viable films, Into the Wild and The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, missing out on a Best Picture nomination. Other categories didn't feature much in terms of shockers, outside of Tommy Lee Jones in Actor for the supposedly forgotten In the Vally of Elah, and Laura Linney for a subtle performance in the small The Savages
After nomination morning (And the mourning of Heath Ledger's tragic death that happened later that afternoon), pundits ultimately agreed on a set of winners that the precursors haven't done much to challenge. I'll still cover these categories, as a few are still legitimately up in the air, along with technical categories, which also has its fair share of locks and open races. Without further ado...
Best Picture
Atonement (Focus Features)
Juno (Fox Searchlight)
Michael Clayton (Universal Pictures)
No Country for Old Men (Miramax)
There Will Be Blood (Paramount Vantage)
Will Win: On paper, with its long, quiet scenes of observation, the occasional outburst of heartless violence and an unconventional, dark and somewhat nihilistic ending, No Country for Old Men doesn't look like any Best Picture winner in recent memory. Still, when you look at the rave reviews (It's arguably the most acclaimed of the bunch), the precursor sweeping (It's only the second film after Best Picture winner American Beauty to win the top prize from all four major guilds), the box office (It's the second highest grossing nominee, the nominee that most often wins), and that no clear potential upsetter every came forth (Unlike 2005, where everyone agreed that only Crash could upset Brokeback Mountain), it seems about as locked as any Best Picture winner since Return of the King three years ago.
Could Win: IF any film could upset No Country, it would probably be the emerging favorite among older voters, Michael Clayton, the lone studio film in the bunch. Juno also has probably the best shot of any contemporary comedy to take the top prize in ages. It doesn't seem quite right though...
Should Win: Atonement is probably the film closest to my heart, and my favorite film from last year, nominee or not. Still, No Country would also be my #2 film of last year (Again, nominee or otherwise), so it would be a more than deserving winner.
Best Direction
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Julian Schnabel)
Juno (Jason Reitman)
Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Will Win: Even if it somehow lost Best Picture, No Country for Old Men still seems set to win here, as the Coens are easily the most experienced nominees here, and most due for a Directing Oscar.
Could Win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly probably barely missed out on a Picture nomination, judging from its many major nominations elsewhere. So if any director could become the first to win a Directing Oscar without a Picture nomination in over seventy years, Schnabel would be a prime candidate. Still, the fact that the lone Director nominee has the best chance at an upset shows how locked the Coens are at this point.
Should Win: Unfortunately I never saw Diving Bell (The perils of living just too far away from a major metropolis), but the Coens are more than worthy, and my viewing of their past works show that the award has been a long time coming.
Best Actor
George Clooney in Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood
Johnny Depp in Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah
Viggo Mortensen in Eastern Promises
Will Win: It would be foolish to dance around the "ifs" and "buts" here: Daniel Day-Lewis is winning Oscar #2 for his sure-to-be-iconic powerhouse of a performance.
Could Win: I guess Clooney could ride a last-minute wave of Michael Clayton acclaim, but no, it's not happening.
Should Win: Clooney, Jones and Mortensen all delivered memorable and worthy performances, but even my slight indifference to There Will Be Blood doesn't deny that Day-Lewis is the worthy winner here.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Julie Christie in Away from Her
Marion Cotillard in La Vie En Rose
Laura Linney in The Savages
Ellen Page in Juno
Will Win: Probably the first category where you can find a legitimate race for the win. While Christie has won a good chuck of critics awards, the Golden Globe and SAG Award, Marion Cotillard has still also won a Golden Globe (In Comedy/Musical, but still) and the BAFTA, an award that has indicated acting upsets in years past (Alan Arkin last year, Adrien Brody in 2002). And while Christie's role is certainly baity (Alzheimer's!), Cotillard is even more baity once you get past the language barrier (Real life person! Fits of rage! Crying! Wide age-range!). So at the moment I am tentatively going with Marion Cotillard for the upset.
Could Win: Christie still has the Globe and the SAG and the bazillion critics awards, so I could just be paranoid here. And hey, the film sneaked a screenplay nom in there, so the film itself doesn't lack support. But don't count out Ellen Page, the hot new thing in the only nominee that at least 3% of the likely Oscar viewership has probably seen.
Should Win: I was never able to find The Savages, but I'm not particularly passionate about any of the other nominees. Cotillard and Christie would make worthy winners though.
Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck in The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Charlie Wilson's War
Hal Holbrook in Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson in Michael Clayton
Will Win: Anton Chigurh is already on the fast track to becoming an iconic movie villain, so denying the current frontrunner Javier Bardem the win would be quite the shocker.
Could Win: IF a No Country backlash were to take place (OR Chigurh is just too heartless for the voters), veteran Holbrook would be a fine alternative in his apparently sweet and heartbreaking role that comes near the end of Into the Wild, an otherwise largely ignored film.
Should Win: Without having seen Into the Wild, Affleck delivered a haunting turn and possibly my favorite performance period from last year as the coward in Andrew Dominik's unfortunately underseen western, but the sad case of category fraud makes the inevitable loss to Bardem easier to handle.
Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett in I'm Not There
Ruby Dee in American Gangster
Saoirse Ronan in Atonement
Amy Ryan in Gone Baby Gone
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton
Will Win: Easily the wide-open major category of the night, the major awards have been split four ways, with all the nominees (Except Ronan) winning major precursors. The last time this happened back in 2000, the one nominee without any awards went on to win. However, as great as a Ronan upset would be, I'll stick with the general consensus that has emerged in the last couple weeks (And a conclusion I came to shortly after the nominations), and go with BAFTA winner Tilda Swinton, winning as a consolation prize for Michael Clayton.
Could Win: Honestly, all four have a fair shot at this point. Though if I had to pick one person, I would probably go with vet Ruby Dee, and her tiny role as Denzel's mom in American Gangster, though that just might be worry about my least-favorite performance winning. Honestly though, all five have a legitimate shot. Watch out.
Should Win: Ronan would probably be my favorites here, taking a challenging role and running with it, showing depth and a lack of cutesy antics not normally seen in child actors.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Atonement (Christopher Hampton)
Away from Her (Sarah Polley)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Ronald Harwood)
No Country for Old Men (Joel Coen, Ethan Coen)
There Will Be Blood (Paul Thomas Anderson)
Will Win: With No Country for Old Men set to win many, many awards Sunday night including the top two prizes, it seems unlikely that the Coens' screenplay would lose.
Could Win: However, don't discount the possibility of the Academy wanting to spread the wealth. If Diving Bell doesn't win Direction, this would be the next spot to award it.
Should Win: Atonement took a book that many considered inadaptable, and made it into a coherent and, best of all, moving film. Quite the feat, really.
Best Original Screenplay
Juno (Diablo Cody)
Lars and the Real Girl (Nancy Oliver)
Michael Clayton (Tony Gilroy)
Ratatouille (Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco)
The Savages (Tamara Jenkins)
Will Win: The most talked about screenplay of the year from the most talked about screenwriter of the year seems like a hard frontrunner to beat, so Juno it is.
Could Win: In the increasingly unlikely chance that Juno is too hip of a film to win, Michael Clayton makes for an easy, more conventional back-up choice.
Should Win: Honestly, an upset of Juno by any film would be a pleasant surprise, particularly Bird's wonderful, deeper-than-you-would-expect work on Ratatouille, or Oliver's miracle of a screenplay for Lars and the Real Girl.
Best Foreign Language Film
Beaufort (Israel)
The Counterfeiters (Austria)
Katyn (
Mongol (
12 (
Will Win: In a year like this, where none of the nominees have any buzz, go with the most conventional: The Counterfeiters, a film about some event in WWII Europe, and that's all you really need to know.
Could Win: I dunno...12? It's a Russian remake of 12 Angry Men, maybe the members that see all five nominees will appreciate that?
Should Win: Along with any other American, even those in big cities, I haven't seen any of these nominees. Only The Counterfeiters has gotten a
Best Animated Feature
Ratatouille
Surf's Up
Will Win: Ratatouille, Ratatouille, and oh, Ratatouille.
Could Win:
Should Win: I never got the chance to see
Best Documentary Feature
No End In Sight
Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience
Sicko
Taxi to the Dark Side
War/Dance
Will Win: The most acclaimed documentary of last year, No End In Sight, is the obvious standout even with three other nominated docs that one way or another cover the current War on Terror.
Could Win: However, if those four docs were to somehow split the vote, and the Academy has gotten over his acceptance speech five years ago, Michael Moore's Sicko could certainly upset.
Should Win: I have only seen Sicko and No End In Sight, but No End In Sight really is an important and detailed documentary that can use all the free press it get. I do wish they hadn't overlooked The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters though, one of last year's greatest accomplishments, documentary or otherwise.
Also, since I like my predictions complete, the shorts, based entirely on reading their descriptions:
Best Documentary Short
La Corona
Freeheld
Salim Baba
Sari's Mother
Will Win: Sari's Mother
Could Win: Salim Baba
Best Animated Short
Even Pigeons Go to Heaven
I Met the Walrus
Madame Tulti-Pulti
My Love
Peter & the Wolf
Will Win: I Met the Walrus
Could Win: Peter & the Wolf
Best Live-Action Short
At Night
Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Le Mozart Des Pickpockets
Tanghi Argentini
The Tonto Woman
Will Win: Il Supplente (The Substitute)
Could Win: Le Mozart Des Pickpockets
And finally, in short, the technical categories:
Best Art Direction
American Gangster (Arthur Max, Beth A. Rubino)
Atonement (Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer)
The Golden Compass (Dennis Gassner, Anna Pinnock)
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Dante Ferretti, Francesca lo Schiavo)
There Will Be Blood (Jack Fisk, Jim Erickson)
Will Win: Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Could Win: Atonement
Should Win: Sweeney Todd
Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford (Roger Deakins)
Atonement (Seamus McGarvey)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Janusz Kaminski)
No Country for Old Men (Roger Deakins)
There Will Be Blood (Robert Elswit)
Will Win: No Country for Old Men
Could Win: There Will Be Blood
Should Win: The Assassination of Jesse James By the Coward Robert Ford
Best Costume Design
Across the Universe (Albert Wolsky)
Atonement (Jacqueline Durrane)
Elizabeth: The Gold Age (Alexandra Byrne)
La Vie En Rose (Marit Allen)
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (Colleen Atwood)
Will Win: Atonement
Could Win: Elizabeth: The Golden Age
Should Win: Atonement
Best Film Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum (Christopher Rouse)
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Juliette Welfling)
Into the Wild (Jay Cassidy)
No Country for Old Men (Roderick Jaynes)
There Will Be Blood (Dylan Tichenor)
Will Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Could Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: The Bourne Ultimatum
Best Makeup
La Vie En Rose (Didier Lavergne, Jan Archibald)
Norbit (Rick Baker, Kazihiro Tsuji)
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Ve Neill, Martin Samuel)
Will Win: La Vie En Rose
Could Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Should Win: Anything but Norbit
Best Original Score
Atonement (Dario Marianelli)
The Kite Runner (Alberto Iglesias)
Michael Clayton (James Newton Howard)
Ratatouille (Michael Giacchino)
3:10 to Yuma (Marco Beltrami)
Will Win: Atonement
Could Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Atonement
Best Original Song
"Falling Slowly," from Once
"Happy Working Song," from Enchanted
"Raise It Up," from August Rush
"So Close," from Enchanted
"That's How You Know," from Enchanted
Will Win: "Falling Slowly"
Could Win: "That's How You Know"
Should Win: "Falling Slowly"
Best Sound Mixing
The Bourne Ultimatum (Scott Millan, David Parker, Kirk Francis)
No Country for Old Men (Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff, Peter F. Kurland)
Ratatouille (Randy Thom, Michael Semanick, Doc Kane)
3:10 to Yuma (Paul Massey, David Giammarco, Jim Stuebe)
Transformers (Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin)
Will Win: Transformers
Could Win: No Country for Old Men
Should Win: No Country for Old Men
Best Sound Effects Editing
The Bourne Ultimatum (Karen M. Baker, Per Hallberg)
No Country for Old Men (Skip Lievsay)
Ratatouille (Randy Thom, Michael Silvers)
There Will Be Blood (Matthew Wood)
Transformers (Mike Hopkins, Ethan Van der Ryn)
Will Win: Transformers
Could Win: Ratatouille
Should Win: Transformers
Best Visual Effects
The Golden Compass (Michael L. Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris, Trevor Wood)
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (John Knoll, Hal T. Hickel, Charlie Gibson, John Frazier)
Transformers (Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl, John Frazier)
Will Win: Transformers
Could Win: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
Should Win: Transformers
Final Tally:
No Country for Old Men - 5
Transformers - 3
Atonement - 2
La Vie En Rose - 2
The Bourne Ultimatum - 1
The Counterfeiters - 1
I Met the Walrus - 1
Juno - 1
Michael Clayton - 1
No End in Sight - 1
Once - 1
Ratatouille - 1
Sari's Mother - 1
Il Supplente (The Subsitute) - 1
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street - 1
There Will Be Blood - 1
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